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Posts Tagged ‘Ireland’

Ireland’s first win against the All Blacks – Positive Externalities and loads of Consumer Surplus

November 7, 2016 Leave a comment

ire-v-abs-chicagoYou maybe aware that the rugby game yesterday morning (NZ time) between Ireland and the New Zealand All Blacks in Chicago created history. It was the first time that Ireland have beaten the All Blacks – the closest they got previously was 10-10 in 1973 at Landsdowne Road (the first International that I ever attended).

Irish supporters, including myself, will take great pleasure in talking about such a result – lets face it we lost it in the last few minutes 3 years ago at Croke Park in Dublin. What all this alludes to is the fact that as part of this entertainment comes without the public paying for it, the public benefits from an externality.

Those who flew to Chicago to support Ireland and went to the game will have no doubt spent a significant amount of US dollars tonight in the bars around town. Nevertheless the satisfaction (utility) derived in US$ from the game would have been much greater than the price they paid for the ticket. This suggest that there is a lot of consumer surplus present – the difference between the price that a consumer WOULD BE WILLING TO PAY, and the price that he or she actually HAS TO PAY. The success of the Irish team will boost merchandise sales and interest for the next Test in Dublin but also has been good for rugby in general. When the All Blacks play overseas there are significant externalities whether it be the revenue generated in hosting the match or the social benefits to society. Furthermore the lead up to the game brings about a sense of delayed gratification (Behavioural Economics). The fact that people have paid for their ticket with the game in two weeks time means that they can reap the pleasures of anticipation of being at the game in Dublin. Research (Smarter Spending – see previous post) shows that owning material things from expensive homes to luxurious cars turn out to provide less pleasure than holidays, concerts or even witnessing Ireland beating the All Blacks. With Ireland’s win national pride increases, along with patriotism and people feeling better about themselves. This is turn brings people together and boosts well-being of the nation especially with the current unstable political environment and evidence that the economic recovery is starting to fade – the challenges of Brexit and recent industrial relations.

One wonders what will happen in two weeks time in Dublin but no doubt there will be externalities.

Apple Tax and Double Irish

August 31, 2016 Leave a comment

I blogged on the ‘Double Irish’ in 2014 and that this tax arrangement would be ended fully within four years.

Yesterday the European Commission ruled that a tax deal between the Irish government and Apple amounted to illegal state aid with Apple being ordered to pay a record-breaking €13bn (NZ$20bn) in back taxes to Ireland. Apple, the world’s biggest company, was paying a tax rate of just 1% and in 2014 was paying 0.005% when he usual corporate rate in Ireland is 12.5%. This equates to €50.00 tax for every €1 million earned.

The commission said Ireland’s tax arrangements – Double Irish – with Apple between 1991 and 2015 had allowed the US company to attribute sales to a “head office” that only existed on paper and could not have generated such profits. See below:

Corporate Tax rates

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Double Irish is a tax avoidance procedure that some multinational corporations use to lower their corporate tax liability. The strategy uses payments between related institutions in a corporate structure to shift income from a higher-tax country to a lower-tax country. The most popular countries being the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, Jersey and Guernsey as they have corporate tax rates of 0% – see list of Central Government Corporate Tax Rates.

Many US technology companies have taken advantage of a loop hole in Irish corporate law which allowed them to be registered in Ireland without being tax-resident there – see chart below to see how it all works. Google for instance keeps it intellectual property in an Irish company that is tax-resident in Bermuda, which has a zero tax rate of corporate tax. However from January 2015 new companies domiciled in Ireland will also have to be tax-residents there, making the Double Irish impossible.

Double Irish

House price inflation: Ireland v New Zealand

November 9, 2015 Leave a comment

Brian Gaynor wrote a piece in the NZ Herald comparing features of the Irish and New Zealand economies. One area that he focused on was the increase in residential property prices from 1995 – 2015.

Ireland – 199%
New Zealand – 232%

Although New Zealand house prices have been increased by a larger percentage it is interesting to note that they have been relatively steady whereas Irish prices peaked in mid-2007 and then plunged 50% by early 2013. Since then they have recovered 31% but are still 35% below their highs in 2007.

Dublin house prices (average) – 2007 = $730,000 2015 = $485,000
Auckland house prices (average) – 2015 = $771,000

LTV – Loan to Value

Like the RBNZ the Irish central bank has introduced new regulations regarding mortgage lending by regulated financial services providers. These included mortgages of no more than 80 per cent of LTV (loan to value) on the principal private dwelling and no more than 70 per cent LTV on investment properties. Additionally mortgage loans on the principal private dwelling are restricted to 3.5 times gross income in Ireland but this ratio in New Zealand is 6 times although 9 times gross income in Auckland.

Ire v NZTax Policy
The two countries tax policy are interesting when you compare how they impact companies and individuals. The message for the New Zealand economy is that the experience of the Irish economy shows that countries take a long time to recover from the impact of housing collapse.

Auckland housing market like the Dublin bubble?

May 25, 2015 Leave a comment

Between 2007 and 2010 house prices in Dublin fell by 56% and had a devastating effect on the banking system in Ireland. Is there going to be a correction in the Auckland housing market of a similar ilk?

Brian Gaynor touched on this in his column in the NZ Herald on the 16th May. Today there are some similarities to the boom in Dublin house prices and that of Auckland. These included:

1. The media painted a picture of escalating house prices and a property boom
2. Purchasers queuing overnight to buy a section or a newly built house
3. Banks offering cash incentives on home loans.
4. Very low mortgage interest rates
5. Auckland’s house prices have increased by 12.4% in the last 6 months. By comparison Dublin’s house prices never increased by more than 12% in any six month period during the boom.
6. Mortgage debt in New Zealand is now above $200 billion – doubling in 10 years. The majority of the debt being in the Auckland residential region. Consumer mortgage debt to disposable income in 2012 was 147% as compared to 58% in  March 1991. In Ireland Bank lending it was 175% in 2008. Graph below shows a graph highlighting Ireland’s exposure to debt.

bank lending EU 1997-2008

Bank lending to households and non-financial firms as a percentage of GDP for
Eurozone economies and the UK, 1997 and 2008

What is a property bubble?
Property bubbles grow as long as buyers are willing to borrow increasingly large amounts in the expectation that prices will continue to rise. This process inevitably hits a limit where borrowers become reluctant to take on what start to appear as impossibly large levels of debt, and the self-reinforcing spiral of borrowing and prices starts to work in reverse.

The end of “The Double Irish”

December 16, 2014 Leave a comment

Corporate Tax ratesThis phrase has come up a lot in the business media. It is a tax avoidance procedure that some multinational corporations use to lower their corporate tax liability. The strategy uses payments between related institutions in a corporate structure to shift income from a higher-tax country to a lower-tax country. The most popular countries being the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, Jersey and Guernsey as they have corporate tax rates of 0% – see list of Central Government Corporate Tax Rates.

Many US technology companies have taken advantage of a loop hole in Irish corporate law which allowed them to be registered in Ireland without being tax-resident there – see chart below to see how it all works. Google for instance keeps it intellectual property in an Irish company that is tax-resident in Bermuda, which has a zero tax rate of corporate tax. However from January 2015 new companies domiciled in Ireland will also have to be tax-residents there, making the Double Irish impossible.

Double Irish

Credit Rating Agencies – how countries stack up.

March 8, 2013 Leave a comment

Rating Agencies Feb 2013Here is a list of the latest ratings by the three main rating agencies. Notice that Australia and the three Scandinavian countries have top ratings. The UK lost its top rating from Moody’s but maintained the top rating from the other two. New Zealand comes in further down with a top rating from Moody’s but has lost its top grade from the other two. When you get to B status your are talking high risk or junk status and this is quite evident with the PIGS counties.

If you have watched the movie documnetary ‘Inside Job’ you will remember that these 3 credit rating agencies also rated high risk investments – sub-prime mortgages – as AAA, up to a week before they failed. The same could be said about their rating of investment company Bear Stearns.

Ultimately they could have ‘stopped the party’ but delayed ratings reports and made junk status investments AAA rated. But as they testified in front of congress their advice to clients are opinions ‘just opinions’ – I wonder do they share the opinions of those that lost huge amounts of money, including sovereign investments. Recently they downgraded Greece and Spain in the knowledge that the servicing of the debt would now become more costly for those countries and stifle any sort of recovery in the near future.

Paddy’s A to Z of the Economic Crisis

November 8, 2012 1 comment

Here is a very funny video from Paddy Cullivan who first performed this at Kilkenomics 2011. Worth a look.

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