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Will there be a recovery in global dairy prices?

April 9, 2017 Leave a comment

Dairy prices fell dramatically in 2014 and 2015, prompting the RBNZ to reverse 2014 OCR increases in 2015. Average prices on the GlobalDairyTrade auction fell by 38% in 2014/2015 and 20% in the 2015/2016 to mid-March.

Inconsistent Chinese demand and increased European/US dairy supply causing the perfect storm of plummeting whole milk powder prices. Thankfully, for dairy farmers and the NZ economy dairy prices recovered in late 2016 but can it be maintained into 2017? Here are some reasons why prices may recover:

  1. EU production is slowing down
  2. New Zealand production is also likely to fall
  3. Demand from China is likely to increase
  4. ASB rural economist Nathan Penny noted three things that would impact the price of milk. One as the fact that milk production was held back before the removal of annual quotas at the end of March 2015 as countries avoided paying penalties associated with producing above quota. Two, after the April removal of quotas, production surged in the EU with April production rising over 3% on a month-by-month basis. Three that post-quota surge has now passed, with production growth slowing, particularly since July, as farmers have struggled with low milk prices.

Once supply is more aligned to demand, global prices are expected to rise again. Europe collectively is the world’s largest dairy exporter, accounting for nearly a third of global export sales. EU exports increased by 6% in milk equivalent last year.

GDT 2012-26.png

 Sources: National Business Review and PWC

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