A2 Economics – National income equilibrium

Unit 9 of the new CAIE Economics course looks at national income and the 45 degree line graph. The graph below covers what you need to know and is one of the more complex graphs in the course. Aggregate expenditure shows the quantity of goods and services which households, firms and government are prepared to buy at different values of the general price level. The early classical economists believed that the size of the aggregate expenditure for output would be sufficient to employ everyone who wanted to work. John Maynard Keynes suggested that the achievement of a full and stable level of employment required the government to play an active part in determining the level of total expenditure. This policy known as demand management, was adopted by most governments in the post-war period. If a government is to manage aggregate demand effectively, it must be capable of influencing the components of aggregate demand i.e.. C+I+G+X-M. Government spending and taxation will be important instruments for this purpose, and by running budget deficits (spend more than they earn) or surpluses(spend less than they earn), the government can inject or withdraw purchasing power into or from the economy. Demand management policies were applied with considerable success in the two decades following the end of Second World War. Unemployment and inflation remained at very low levels throughout this period. However, these policies have proved to be much less successful since the mid-1960s.

The components of Aggregate Demand   – AD = C + I + G + X – M

Sign up to elearneconomics for comprehensive key notes with coloured illustrations, flash cards, written answers and multiple-choice tests on National Income and 45 degree line that provides for users with different learning styles working at their own pace (anywhere at any time).
 

Advertisement

Consumption Function Cake

Went through the consumption function this morning with my A2 class and I recalled the superb cake that A2 student Lara Hodgson made for the class a few years ago – here’s hoping for a similar cake this term. Remember that the standard Keynesian consumption function is written as follows:

C = a + c (Yd) – where:

  •   C = total consumer spending
  •    a = is autonomous spending
  •    c (Yd) = the propensity to spend out of disposable income

Autonomous spending (a) is consumption which does not depend on the level of income. For example people can fund some of their spending by using their savings or by borrowing money from banks and other lenders. A change in autonomous spending would in fact cause a shift in the consumption function leading to a change in consumer demand at all levels of income. The key to understanding how a rise in disposable income affects household spending is to understand the concept of the marginal propensity to consume (mpc). The marginal propensity to consume is the change in consumer spending arising from a change in disposable income. The higher the mpc the steeper the gradient of the consumption function line. As you can imagine the consumption of cake was fairly rapid.

Sign up to elearneconomics for multiple choice test questions (many with coloured diagrams and models) and the reasoned answers on Consumption Function Immediate feedback and tracked results allow students to identify areas of strength and weakness vital for student-centred learning and understanding.

Veblen Goods and the impact of advertising.

When a firm advertises it does so to make consumers aware of their product / service so informed decisions can be made which ultimately, making the firm and consumer better off – positive advertising. But the way adverts are targeted, they can contribute to long-run health risks especially on those that are very impressionable – London has banned junk-food advertising on its public transport. Advertising a top of the range 4 wheel drive car on its way up to a chalet in the picturesque Swiss Alps doesn’t do much for the majority of people who can’t afford them – they see what others can afford but know that they are not in the same league – negative advertising.

Positive: advertising informs. It may promote human welfare by allowing people to make better choices about products. 

Negative: advertising stimulates desires that are not feasible. This creates dissatisfaction. Hence, advertising might reduce welfare by unduly raising consumption aspirations. 

So if advertising encourages people to have things they cannot have does this leave society worse off? Recent research by Chloe Michel, Andrew Oswald, Eugenio Proto and Michelle Sovinsky – Advertising as a Major Source of Human Dissatisfaction: Cross-National Evidence on One Million Europeans – did analysis of approximately 1 million randomly sampled European citizens across 27 nations over 3 decades. They showed that increases in national advertising expenditure are followed by significant declines in levels of life satisfaction. They estimated that a doubling of ad spending is associated with a subsequent drop in reported satisfaction of 3% – an effect about a quarter as strong as a spell of unemployment. Although the authors cannot be certain that advertising has this effect this area is not new to economists.

Conspicuous consumption was introduced by economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen in his 1899 book The Theory of the Leisure Class. It is a term used to describe the lavish spending on goods and services acquired mainly for the purpose of displaying income or wealth. In the mind of a conspicuous consumer, such display serves as a means of attaining or maintaining social status.

Economists and sociologists often cite the 1980’s as a time of extreme conspicuous consumption. The yuppie materialised as the key agent of conspicuous consumption in the US. Yuppies didn’t need to purchase BMWs or Mercedes’ cars for example; they did so in order to show off their wealth. This period had its origins in the 1930’s with Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Fredrick von Hayek – the latter being the author of “The Road to Serfdom”, in which he said that social spending rather than private consumption would lead inevitably to tyranny. Margaret Thatcher (UK Prime Minister 1979-1990) and Ronald Reagan (US President 1981-1989) believed in this ideology and cut taxes and privatised the commanding heights in a move to a free market environment.

So-called Veblen goods (also as know as snob value goods) reverse the normal logic of economics in that the higher the price the more demand for the product – see graph below

Over the last three decades conspicuous consumption has accelerated at a phenomenal level in the industrial world. Self-gratification could no longer be delayed and an ever-increasing variety of branded products became firmly ingrained within our individuality. The myth that the more we have the happier we become is self-perpetuating: the more we consume, the less able we are to tackle the myth.

Conspicuous consumption plays a significant role in society. Most people in the developed world have their basic needs met but to keep workers (on higher incomes) striving for more stuff there must always be more desirable consumer goods out of their reach. Never ending dissatisfaction can increase the demand for goods and services and the desire to earn more income. However it is a sort of prosperity that depends on consumers never being satisfied with what they have.

Veblen Goods and inconspicuous consumption?

Conspicuous consumption was introduced by economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen in his 1899 book The Theory of the Leisure Class. It is a term used to describe the lavish spending on goods and services acquired mainly for the purpose of displaying income or wealth. In the mind of a conspicuous consumer, such display serves as a means of attaining or maintaining social status.

Economists and sociologists often cite the 1980’s as a time of extreme conspicuous consumption. The yuppie materialised as the key agent of conspicuous consumption in the US. Yuppies didn’t need to purchase BMWs or Mercedes’ cars for example; they did so in order to show off their wealth. This period had its origins in the 1930’s with Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Fredrick von Hayek – the latter being the author of “The Road to Serfdom”, in which he said that social spending rather than private consumption would lead inevitably to tyranny. Margaret Thatcher (UK Prime Minister 1979-1990) and Ronald Reagan (US President 1981-1989) believed in this ideology and cut taxes and privatised the commanding heights in a move to a free market environment.

VeblenSo-called Veblen goods (also as know as snob value goods) reverse the normal logic of economics in that the higher the price the more demand for the product – see graph below

Over the last three decades conspicuous consumption has accelerated at a phenomenal level in the industrial world. Self-gratification could no longer be delayed and an ever-increasing variety of branded products became firmly ingrained within our individuality. The myth that the more we have the happier we become is self-perpetuating: the more we consume, the less able we are to tackle the myth.

However a recently published book The Sum of Small Things: A Theory of the Aspirational Class by Elizabeth Currid-Halkett looks at how the power of material goods as symbols of social position has diminished due to their accessibility. Although the lower income groups must dedicate a greater proportion of their income to basic necessities, they spend a higher share of their income to conspicuous consumption than the rich do. Between 1996 and 2014 the richest 1% fell further behind the national average in the percentage of their spending dedicated to bling. The middle income quintile went the other way: by 2014 they spent 35% more than the average as a percentage of their annual expenditure.

According to Elizabeth Currid-Halkett the higher income groups have moved away from buying stuff – materialism – to more subtle expenditures that reveal status and knowledge. The most common of them being education for their children.

Those in the top 10% of income earners now allocate four time as much of their spending to school and university compared to 1996, whereas for other income groups spending has remained fairly constant. However one could say that fees for both school and university have increased over that period of time. The upper class also invest heavily in domestic services such as housekeepers, freeing up time that the less fortunate must spend on chores.

Rather than frittering away that precious leisure time on frivolities, as Veblen’s leisure class did, they devote it to enriching experiences, like attending the opera, holidaying in far-off lands and working out at fancy gyms. Their children, by tagging along and thus absorbing this “cultural capital”, develop the sophistication needed to win admission to selective universities, vastly increasing the odds that they will form the next generation’s elite. The modern equivalent of Victorian worsted-stocking wearers are hipsters, who imitate the wealthy’s penchant for farmers’ markets and fair-trade lattes, even if they cannot afford a cruise to Antarctica.  Source: The Economist – August 5th 2017

 

 

The Birkin Handbag – is it a Veblen Good?

Conspicuous consumption was introduced by economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen in his 1899 book The Theory of the Leisure Class. It is a term used to describe the lavish spending on goods and services acquired mainly for the purpose of displaying income or wealth. In the mind of a conspicuous consumer, such display serves as a means of attaining or maintaining social status.

Economists and sociologists often cite the 1980’s as a time of extreme conspicuous consumption. The yuppie materialised as the key agent of conspicuous consumption in the US. Yuppies didn’t need to purchase BMWs or Mercedes’ cars for example; they did so in order to show off their wealth. This period had its origins in the 1930’s with Austrian economists Ludwig von Mises and Fredrick von Hayek – the latter being the author of “The Road to Serfdom”, in which he said that social spending rather than private consumption would lead inevitably to tyranny. Margaret Thatcher (UK Prime Minister 1979-1990) and Ronald Reagan (US President 1981-1989) believed in this ideology and cut taxes and privatised the commanding heights in a move to a free market environment.

So-called Veblen goods (also as know as snob value goods) reverse the normal logic of economics in that the higher the price the more demand for the product – see graph below

VeblenOver the last three decades conspicuous consumption has accelerated at a phenomenal level in the industrial world. Self-gratification could no longer be delayed and an ever-increasing variety of branded products became firmly ingrained within our individuality. The myth that the more we have the happier we become is self-perpetuating: the more we consume, the less able we are to tackle the myth.

The Economist 1843 bi-monthly magazine had a very good article on Hermès’s Birkin handbag (named after Jane Birkin, an Anglo-French actress who spilled the contents of a overfull straw bag in front of Jean-Louis Dumas, Hermès’s chief executive) and how it has become one of the world’s most expensive – prices start at $7,000; in June Christie’s Hong Kong sold a matte Himalayan crocodile-skin Birkin with a ten-carat diamond-studded white-gold clasp and lock for $300,168. The rationale for its expense is that it is hand crafted and can take up to 18 hours to complete although the production cost is estimated to be around $800.

Birkin Bag

One would think that this would be a Veblen Good – a good in which the higher the price the more demanded. However there are a couple of ways that the Birkin handbag is not.

1. The bag is not all that conspicuous as although most people can identify Gucci, Louis Vuitton or Chanel, a Birkin is not so easy to find. In fact it is an inconspicuous but expensive bag. This theory was explained in the article “Signalling status with luxury goods: the role of brand prominence” from the Journal of Marketing (2010). It divided the high income earners into two groups;

Parvenus – who want to associate themselves with other high income groups and distinguish themselves from those who do not have material wealth.

Patricians –  who want to signal to other people in their high income bracket and not to the masses. They are of the belief that more expensive luxury goods aimed at them will have less obvious branding than cheaper products made by the same company. This was achieved with smaller logos for more expensive items and larger ones for cheaper goods which are aimed at the masses. People who cannot afford the luxury items will buy the big logo items (louder products) and this is where the counterfeiters have a field day.

2. Normally producers of Veblen goods should raise the price till the point where the demand curve starts to follow it normal shape – downward sloping from left to right. However with Birkin they maintain its exclusivity not by raising the price but by limiting the supply. Unlike other Veblen goods you just can’t walk into a shop and buy a Birkin bag – you have to place an order and wait for it to arrive. But you would wonder why they don’t sell more and make more money? It is a supply constraint – limited availability of high-quality skins and craftspeople to make them – it takes two years training. Hermès suggests, Birkins are mined, not simply made.

Commercial Reasons to limit supply of Birkins

Rationing by supply rather than price does make good commercial sense for the following reasons:

1. It gives Hermès a buffer as if demand drops, sales will not.

2. It creates excess demand for the bags, which overflows into demand for other Hermès products – wallets, belts, beach towels etc.

3. Profitability in the short run would reduce its exclusiveness as the main buyers of the bags would eventually be those concerned with social climbing. Therefore the rich may lose interest in the bags and so will those that aspire to be like them.

However I not sure Hermès actually want you to buy their amazingly expensive bag.

Should we stop consumption?

Geoffrey Miller is his book – Spent: Sex, Evolution, and Consumer Behaviour – examines conspicuous consumption in order to rectify marketing’s poor understanding of human spending behaviour and consumerist culture. His thesis is that marketing influences people—particularly the young—that the most effectual means to show that status is through consumption choices, rather than conveying such traits as intelligence and personality through more natural means of communication, such as simple conversation. He argues that marketers still tend to use naive models of human nature that are uninformed by advances in evolutionary psychology and behavioural ecology. As a result, marketers “still believe that premium products are bought to display wealth, status, and taste, and they miss the deeper mental traits that people are actually wired to display—traits such as kindness, intelligence, and creativity.

The recent recession has sent out a few mixed messages. Firstly there has been the reduction in consumption as people’s credit lines have dried up but there are those that believe that you should spend more to maintain growth and employment in the economy. With household budgets being very tight smarter consumption rather than less consumption has been advocated by Geoffrey Miller. He refers to this as more ethical consumption where the production of produce does not involve the abuse of natural resources or the exploitation of people or animals.

The Hedonic Treadmill

The hedonic treadmill is the tendency of a person to remain at a relatively stable level of happiness despite changes in fortune or the achievement of major goals. As a person makes more money, expectations and desires rise in tandem, which results in no permanent gain in happiness. Wikipedia

Below is a very good video on consumption and the externalities it creates. If you are constantly in pursuit of keeping up with others in the community and conspicuously buying, you’re more likely to become addicted to shopping and feel less pleasure and happiness each time you buy. Conversely, reducing your consumption, living more simply, and focusing instead on experiences will ultimately — as this research shows — make you happier. Here is a very good video of this.

China looking at sustainable and balanced growth

Historically China’s economic model was based on export-led growth, massive government injections into the economy and access to cheap money. This is not sustainable and although you can keep blowing up bridges and build cities that nobody lives in at some point it becomes unsustainable. Furthermore since the global financial crisis economies have increased protectionist policies to look after their own economy. Therefore the Chinese government need to refocus the growth of the economy on domestic consumption rather than building things – Gross Fixed Capital Formation. So much more C than I in the GDP Expenditure equation. EG:

GDP = C↑+ I↓+ G + (X-M)

The chart below from the BNZ shows that Consumption ( C ) accounts for just 35% of the Chinese economy which is significantly below what is apparent in the developed world. Domestic Consumption in the US economy is over 70% of GDP. It will take many years for China to get near this level of consumption.

Household Cons % GDP

NZ farmers intending to spend up large

With the Field Days in full swing and primary commodity prices at significant highs there is the expectation that the farming sector will increase its marginal propensity to consume – MPC. Some have suggested that farmers are deleveraging (paying off debt) however cashflows currently appear strong and with the recent payouts farmers seem to have a choice – investment is an option. With such high prices it is important that they “make hay when the shines” (sorry about the pun) so more investment is a strong possibility. In theoretical terms this relates to the Marginal Efficiency of Capital. The theory states that it is profitable to invest so long as the MEC (the % return) is greater than the rate of interest (the cost of funds needed to finance the investment). The OPTIMUM level of Investment is where: % MEC = the rate of interest

From the BNZ rural wrap

In addition, contrary to what some would have you believe, not all farmers have piles and piles of debt. Indeed, some have no debt at all. Indeed, agricultural savings seems to be rising in other ways judging by the $1.2 billion lift in agricultural bank deposits over the past seven months. Unfortunately, the lack of flow of funds or farmer spending data in New Zealand means no firm conclusions around spending can be drawn. But lining up the borrowing and deposit figures against the $3.3 billion increase in annual food exports over the past 12 months suggests some scope for more spending.

Conspicuous consumption

Tonight on National Radio (Radio New Zealand) Brian Crump had a very interesting interview with Dr Neville Bennett, economic historian, University of Canterbury – click here to download the interview. He talked about the change in conspicuous consumption and how people will start to cut back on their purchasing of luxury goods. Conspicuous consumption was introduced by economist and sociologist Thorstein Veblen in his 1899 book The Theory of the Leisure Class. It is a term used to describe the lavish spending on goods and services acquired mainly for the purpose of displaying income or wealth. In the mind of a conspicuous consumer, such display serves as a means of attaining or maintaining social status. A very comparable but more informal term is “keeping up with the Joneses”.

Why do people have this desire to acquire stuff – from the latest model of BMW to designer water?
Over the last three decades conspicuous consumption has accelerated at a phenomenal level in the industrial world. Self-gratification could no longer be delayed and an ever increasing variety of branded products became firmly ingrained within our individuality. The myth that the more we have the happier we become is self-perpetuating: the more we consume, the less able we are to tackle the myth. According to Neal Lawson – author of All Consuming – the central problem of a consumer society is that we might get wealthier, but not happier. Consumers have been competing against each other to gain an advantage. In a race that has no end. Ultimately the competition is about gaining happiness because of someone else’s unhappiness. He describes consumer society as the “the fine art of compensation, enough to reward us and keep our interest but not enough to stop us going back to the shops for more”. However, when is the amount stuff we accumulate enough? According the law of diminishing marginal utility we should find that the first purchase of a product gives us more satisfaction than the second. This means that even if we were to buy more we would look eventually to other ways of finding happiness. If we were to go on consuming we would have to move beyond physical needs to emotional desires.