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Posts Tagged ‘China’

China – a blessing or curse for Developing Countries of Africa?

May 20, 2017 Leave a comment

I recently read in the New York Times Magazine a very interesting article on China and how it has built up enormous holdings in poor, resource-rich African countries. Although it may seem as a blessing to the local economy it does have its drawbacks. You can read the full article here but I have edited it for students doing Development Economics topic at A Level.
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Everywhere you look on the globe China’s presence can be felt, driven by its insatiable demand for resources and new markets as well a longing for strategic allies. In 2000 China had 5 countries as their largest trading partner but that has increased today to more than 100 countries including New Zealand, Australia and the USA.  Although there has been a slow down in China, President Xi Jinping has indicated that over the next decade approximately $1.6 trillion will be put into infrastructure and development throughout Asia, Africa and the Middle East. This is serious money that makes a bold statement as to their intentions globally.

China hasn’t held back in trying to secure sufficient resources to keep their economy going. Besides oil and gas China’s state-owned companies have bought mines around the world eg:

  • Peru – copper
  • Zambia – copper
  • Papua New Guinea – nickel
  • Australia – iron ore
  • South Africa – iron ore
  • Namibia – uranium

However as the Chinese economy slowed recently the demand for imports of commodities dropped thus impacting on some of these commodity exporting countries – in particular mines in Western Australia, Zambia and South Africa have been forced to close.

When China met Africa
You maybe aware of a previous blog post in which I talked about the DVD documentary  ‘When China met Africa’ which focused on Chinese investment in Zambia – a very good look at the micro environment that businesses operate in.  Investment in Africa by the Chinese started in 1976 with a 1,156 mile railroad through the bush from Tanzania to Zambia but it wasn’t until the 2000’s that Chinese authorities realised that there was a need for resources to fuel its own internal growth. With this in mind Chinese companies were given free reign to go and seek these resources.

With the end of the Cold War and the Middle East becoming a major conflict area, the US involvement in Africa started to dwindle. Furthermore with the Trump administration raising doubts about free trade agreements and global warming there is an opportunity for China to push its own initiatives and push for global leadership. A Trans Pacific Partnership without the US is very appealing to the Chinese authorities as it allows to become a dominant player in negotiations with other members.

husab mine.jpegChina tends to provide no-strings financing that, unlike Western aid, is not conditional on human rights, clean governance or fiscal restraint. The Namibian finance minister welcomed China as an alternative but although the Chinese want you to be masters of your own destiny and dictate what you want, there are conditions which doesn’t necessarily make their presence truly beneficial. Namibia has seen significant Chinese investment especially in the Husab Uranium Mine ($4.6bn) the second largest uranium mine in the world. It is estimated that it will increase Namibia’s GDP by 5% when the mine reaches full production although almost all of the uranium will go to China for nuclear energy and thereby reducing its dependence on coal. Approximately 88% of China’s energy comes from fossils fuels, 11% from hydropower, solar and wind and only 1% from nuclear power. In order to reach clean energy goals and lose the mantle of chief polluter in the world, China has put a lot of emphasis on nuclear power and they have 37 nuclear reactors with another 20 under construction. The aim is to have 110 reactors by 2030 and become an exporter of nuclear-reactor technology.

The Chinese company China General Nuclear (CGN) has a 90% stake in the mine with the Namibian government 10%. Although Namibians are benefitting from all the infrastructure investment by the Chinese they have saddled the country with debt and have done little to reduce the 30% unemployment rate – Namibia has one of the most unequal societies in the world. In China independent unions are essentially illegal but Namibians have the Metal and Allied Namibian Workers Union (MANWU) which accused Chinese state-owned companies of paying Namibian workers only one third of the minimum wage and also using Chinese workers for unskilled jobs that by law should be going to Namibians. As the unions’s secretary said “the Chinese will promise you heaven but the implementation can be hell”. Also scandals involving Chinese nationals  include tax evasion, poaching endangered wildlife, money laundering have done little to enhance the mood of locals.

Over the last decade China has got a reputation for pillaging and pilfering the natural world with its growing demand natural resources as well as the illegal wildlife trade. Chinese businesses have had public backlash over their proposals that could do damage to the environment. One company wanted to clear a 30,000 acre forest so that it could plant tobacco – the soil in the forest is totally unsuitable for this purpose. Another wanted to set up donkey abattoirs to meet China’s demand for donkey meat and skin whilst a Nambian-based Chinese company requested to capture killer whales, penguins, dolphins and shark in Namibian waters to sell to aquatic theme parks in China. Under pressure from activists the Chinese firm withdrew their request.

Is China the World’s New Colonial Power?

Categories: Development Economics Tags: ,

The market for sand

April 16, 2017 Leave a comment

Sand Demand.pngSand has become an integral part of the global economy and also the most extracted material. It is used in the construction industry where it is part of the process in making concrete and asphalt. Fine sand tends to be used to produce glass and electronics.

Demand
Since the GFC in 2008 Asian countries have been the big users of sand with China consuming up to 40% of world supply (Asia 70%) building 32.3m houses and 4.5m kilometers of road between 2011 and 2015. See graph from The Economist.

Although hard to believe, sand is becoming scarce as desert sand is too fine for most commercial purposes. Furthermore the cost of transporting sand can be very expensive in relation to the price and reserves need to be located near construction sites to make it more economical. By contrast Singapore and Qatar are big importers of sand to assist in their construction programme (especially the latter with the Football World Cup in 2022). Sand is also demanded to create more living area in a country. As is well documented, China has built fake island on coral reefs in the South China Sea. Japan has also claimed a lot of land by dumping vast amounts of sand.

Limited supply
Sand is being extracted at an increasing rate and this is having an impact on the environment  with water levels in lakes being lowered and beaches in resort areas of the Caribbean and northern Africa. Indonesia and Malaysia have now banned sand exports to Singapore as a result of thinning coastlines. But with limited supply comes a higher price and with a higher price the black market starts to become prevalent. In India the illicit market for sand is valued around $2.3bn a year. Also the rising price of sand will lead developing-country builders to source alternatives to sand

Sand – elastic in demand as there are substitutes:
*Sand could be classifies as elastic as there are substitutes:
*Mud can be used for reclamation
*Straw and wood to build houses
*Crushed rock to make concrete.

Global Outlook
With the continued growth of construction and manufacturing output global demand for sand is forecast to increase 5.5 percent to 291 million metric tons in 2018, with a value of $12.5 billion. Whether the supply can cope with this increase demand is another question. Higher prices will make illicit mining more attractive.

Sources: The Economist 1-4-17. Freedonia – World Industrial Silica Sand

Categories: Supply & Demand Tags: , ,

China and the exodus of cash

March 5, 2017 Leave a comment

Another very good video from PunkFT. As the Chinese economy starts to slowdown by its standards (even at 6% growth) the Chinese are sending their money overseas in search of safer investments. In doing this they are often violating currency controls which are there to keep money inside China. The housing market in many countries have been driven up by the flood of cash from China – Vancover, Sydney, Hong Kong, New York and Auckland. Chinese spent almost $30 billion on U.S. homes in 2015.

How will authorities stop the outflow? One way is to increase domestic interest rates to encourage people to deposit their money in local banks. However this impacts those Chinese companies that borrow money and could prompt some debt-laden companies into deleveraging. Worth a look and great animations.

USA and China Trade – will the USA create more jobs?

February 13, 2017 Leave a comment

USA China Trade Deficit.pngDonald Trump appointed Peter Navarro as the head of the newly created National Trade Council – it has been his anti-China stance outlined in his book ‘Death by China’ that has led to his surprise hiring by Trump. The book talks of the economic and military rise of China and the demise of the US manufacturing industry unable to compete with the Chinese sweatshops.

However a lot of the criticisms that Navarro has pointed at China have been quite valid.

1. Currency – the intervention on the foreign exchange market to keep their currency weak so improving the competitiveness of exports.
2. Intellectual property – forcing American firms to hand over intellectual property as a condition of access to the Chinese market.
3. Pollution – Chinese firms pollute the environment and have weak environmental controls on industry.
4. Working conditions – these are far worse than what is the law in most industrialized countries.
5. Export subsidies – government assistance help reduce the cost and ultimately the price of exports from China.

In 2006 he estimated that 41% of China’s competitive advantage over the USA in manufacturing came from unfair practices like those above and when China joined the WTO in 2001 the trade deficit with the USA ballooned at the same time millions of manufacturing jobs disappeared. The deficit though was funded by the Chinese and it was a consequence of the Chinese buying US Treasury bills – to put it simply the Chinese funded US consumers to buy Chinese products. Niall Ferguson refers to the relationship as Chimerica – the two are interdependent in that the USA borrows off the Chinese and then uses that money to buy Chinese products.

Navarro believes that with China adhering to global trade rules the deficit in manufacturing will decrease and manufacturing jobs will return to the US. However when jobs return they are not the same as they were in previous years as it is highly likely that productivity/technology has refined the production process. Research has also suggested that when the trade deficit with China increased (1998-2010) the loss of manufacturing jobs only rose slightly 2.5m to 2.7m. One wonders what Navarro will do in the coming months?

Sources: The Economist, The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson.

Categories: Trade Tags: ,

Contributions to world GDP 2013-16

January 30, 2017 Leave a comment

The Economist produced a graph showing world GDP data and made the following points:

  • India and China account for 65% of world growth
  • Emerging markets contributions in 2016 were down to its lowest figure since 2008 – falling commodity prices would have been a factor
  • Norway contributed less to global GDP with lower oil prices being prevalent.
  • USA with increased government spending and greater export volumes improved its position
  • Brazil has been in negative territory since mid 2014 – interesting point with significant government spending on hosting the Football World Cup and the Olympics.

Maybe a good starter for your classes asking the question who contributes most to world GDP?

World GDP 2013-16.png

 

Categories: Growth Tags: , , , , ,

RBNZ cut OCR but little mention of Trump

November 10, 2016 Leave a comment

Although the attention this morning was on the election of Donald Trump as US President the RBNZ cut the OCR to 1.75% with a mild easing bias of “numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly”. nz-cpi-nov-16

It is expected that the OCR will remain at this level in the near future with inflation expected to be back within the 1-3% Policy Target Agreement (PTA) by the end of January next year – see graph from ASB Bank. The reason for this is that:

  • Dairy prices have recovered considerably.
  • The labour market is tightening.
  • Growth is running at an above-trend pace.
  • The OCR is already at an expansionary rate and the economy.

Could there be another cut in the OCR? There would be pressure if the following eventuated:

  • there is a strengthening of the NZ dollar,
  • increasing bank funding costs,
  • any further weakness in inflation expectations,
  • any deterioration in the global growth outlook.

The change of US Presidency will also be a wildcard over the longer term, with its mix of potential fiscal stimulus and trade protectionism. Trump has already signaled that he is not keen to sign TPP and he wants to reopen the NAFTA – North America Free Trade Agreement. Furthermore, he might take umbrage on the Chinese with their manipulation of the Yuan to advantage its exports and put a large tariff on its goods coming into the US. For New Zealand it may mean that they have to go down the bi-lateral agreement option in order to increase trade.

Other than the US election, Graeme Wheeler needs to be aware of the following:

  • Theresa May has indicated she wants to trigger Article 50 by May 2017 – it is very unclear what the process will be and the negotiating strategy of both the UK and the EU. This could have implications for NZ trade.
  • In China the increasing of centalised  power of the President.
  • China has a huge amount of corporate debt relative to GDP – see graph below.
  • Brazil is still in recession
  • Russia still has issues in the Middle East

China Corporate debt.png

Rural China making a more equal society

July 18, 2016 Leave a comment

The presence of technology in rural China is evidence that it is not just the booming cities that are the sources of growth. Furthermore, it suggests that inequality which has been symbolised by the ‘country versus city’ divide is now starting to decline.

Since the 1980’s China has gone through massive growth but it hasn’t been evenly shared. Income inequality is traditionally measured by using the Gini coefficient.

The Gini Coefficient is derived from the same information used to create a Lorenz Curve. The co-efficient indicates the gap between two percentages: the percentage of population, and the percentage of income received by each percentage of the population. In order to calculate this you divide the area between the Lorenz Curve and the 45° line by the total area below the 45° line eg.
Area between the Lorenz Curve and the 45° line  ÷  Total area below the 45° line

The resulting number ranges between:Lorenz 2

0 = perfect equality where say, 1% of the population = 1% of income, and

1 = maximum inequality where all the income of the economy is acquired by a single recipient.

* The straight line (45° line) shows absolute equality of income. That is, 10% of the households earn 10% of income, 50% of households earn 50% of income.

In 2010 China’s Gini coefficient was 0.61 which was one of the world’s most unequal countries however officially it has been falling for seven years from 0.49 in 2008 to 0.46 in 2015. Rural incomes have grown more quickly that their urban counterparts – in 2009 the average urban income was 3.3 times that of a rural worker but now it is 2.7 times. Many of those living in rural areas actually work in cities but are prevented from living there because of the strict residency system. Also companies have now been looking to the rural areas for cheap labour.

But at the top end you would get the impression that inequality of wealth is extremely high – wealth = what you own, as opposed to what you earn. China has more dollar billionaires (596) than the USA (537). Research has shown that 1% of the population control a 1/3 of China’s assets.

Categories: Inequality Tags: ,
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