Inflation and the Base Year Effect

A price index is a means of comparing a set of prices as they change over time. Index numbers allow for a comparison of prices with those in an arbitrary chosen reference (base year), a year that current values can be compared against. This base year is usually given a numerical value of 100 or 1000. The index number allows for percentage changes to be calculated between various time periods.

If we look at the last few years some of the current inflation increases has been exaggerated by what are known as base-year effects. What has happened is that annual inflation has been measured against a time during the COVID-19 pandemic when economies were locked down and prices slumped. Therefore the inflation figures around the world have been increasing quite rapidly but soon they will be measured against the current higher prices which should mean a lower inflation figure. Regions such as Europe that rely on imported energy may see a greater fall in inflation than others if the price of fuels like oil and gas were to quickly cool. But that doesn’t seem likely in the current climate especially with the war in the Ukraine and come October the northern hemisphere heads back into winter with greater energy use. The graph above is a little out-of-date in that inflation in the UK is now 9.1% and the Bank of England expect it to exceed 11% in October. The USA has an inflation rate of 8.6% and it is expected to reach 9%.

Central Bank rate increases in 2022
Below are the central bank rate hikes this year and the big question is have they got their timing and rate increases right.

  • With the threat of inflation should banks have increased their rates earlier?
  • If they tighten too quickly will that tip their economy into recession and a hard landing?
  • What is the right rate increase for the current inflation figure?
  • How long (pipeline effect) will it take for interest changes to impact the inflation figure?
  • These are the challenging questions that central bankers face in today’s environment.

For more on Inflation and Base Rates view the key notes (accompanied by fully coloured diagrams/models) on elearneconomics that will assist students to understand concepts and terms for external examinations, assignments or topic tests.

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