Turkish inflation hits 73.5% but not surprising.

Most economists are in agreement that when there is an increase in inflation the central bank increases the base interest rates in order to reduce spending and encouraging saving. This takes money out of the circular flow and should lead to less borrowing and therefore less pressure on prices.

The Turkish lira dropped by 17% this year with three cuts in interest rates since September. This comes as inflation has climbed to 73.5%. So why would you drop interest rates when you have rapidly increasing inflation? President Erdogan sacked the governor of the head of central bank Naci Agbal who had been hiking interest rates to dampen down inflation – he was the third governor to lose his job in the last two years. Erdogan believes that raising interest rates would raise inflation rather than reduce it and he proceeded to cut rates further which saw an even steeper decline in the lira. An argument for this policy could be that the cheaper exports can drive economic growth.

Source: FT4th June 2022

The collapse of the lira make exports competitive and imports more expensive and in September Turkey posted a current account surplus thanks in large to a recovery in tourist numbers. Turkey relies heavily on imports of raw materials and energy and with the exchange rate falling these have become a lot more expensive. Although Turkish exports should be cheaper, the heavy import component of finished exports makes those goods more expensive so this outweighs the benefits of having a cheaper lira – e.g. in assembling kitchen appliances the price of imports of the component parts make the overall price of the appliance more expensive. This just fuels more inflation. Supermarkets are limiting customers to one item as they know people will stockpile produce with the ever increasing inflation rate.

So with inflation now at 73.5% and and interest rates at 14% this makes real interest rates = – 59.5%. The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 14% at its May meeting, extending a pause that followed 5% of cuts last year. This has led to the local population to turn to other currencies – US$ Euro – in order to protect the value of their money. Below is a very good video clip from Deutsche Welle (German World Service) outlining the crisis that Turkey face and how a policy of cutting interest rates has backfired.

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