The Greeks vote on Sunday whether to accept a June 25 offer from the International Monetary Fund, European Union and the European Central Bank (collectively known as “the Troika”) to provide Greece with desperately needed bailout money. In exchange, the Troika demanded that Greece implement a list of tax increases, spending cuts, and economic reforms. If there is a no vote then there could be the following scenario.
Negatives
* Overnight the Greek authorities would have to circulate a new currency (most likely the Drachma)
* The Drachma would depreciate against the Euro – according to some analysts this would increase Greek debt from the current level of 175% to 230% of GDP.
* Interest rates would increase causing businesses to go bankrupt – some have indicated that this would be around 50% of businesses
* The risk of a run on the banks would mean that the monetary authorities would have to introduce controls on money flows – especially abroad.
* Social unrest would no doubt escalate in the short-term and many Greeks will leave the country (if they can afford it).
* The Greek government would find it difficult to raise funds from overseas as investors become more prudent and see Greek bonds as an even bigger risk than before.
* A devaluation will would do nothing to change Greece’s structural problems.
* The euro will lose credibility in the long run and its weaker members will be exposed to bank runs which will ultimately extinguish any chance of a recovery.
Positives
* A weaker currency would make Greek exports a lot cheaper and may resurrect the textile industry that collapsed a few years ago.
* However the biggest benefit would be the tourism industry where holidays would become very cheap relative to similar destinations in Europe.
* The Greek government could keep printing money to finance the promises made Alexis Tsipras’ government – maybe an inflationary threat.
* Interest rates would no longer be determined by the ECB and a more expansionary monetary policy could be implemented by Greek authorities to tackle the downturn.
We’ve been here before as Jeff Sachs mentioned in his piece from Project Syndicate.
Almost a century ago, at World War I’s end, John Maynard Keynes offered a warning that holds great relevance today. Then, as now, creditor countries (mainly the US) were demanding that deeply indebted countries make good on their debts. Keynes knew that a tragedy was in the making.
“Will the discontented peoples of Europe be willing for a generation to come so to order their lives that an appreciable part of their daily produce may be available to meet a foreign payment?” he asked in The Economic Consequences of the Peace. “In short, I do not believe that any of these tributes will continue to be paid, at the best, for more than a few years.”
The Greek government is right to have drawn the line. It has a responsibility to its citizens. The real choice, after all, lies not with Greece, but with Europe.
Below is a chart from Bloomberg Business explaining the outcomes.
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