Immigration and Wages – a useful diagram

I found this graph in New Zealand Association of Economists publication entitled “Asymmetric Information”. It shows the effects of immigration policy and considers the broader effects of immigration – not just the simple fact that immigration increases the size of the labour force and therefore puts downward pressure on wages. It suggests that immigration shifts the aggregate demand curve to the right and this can increase inflationary pressure which ultimately raises wages. There is also the chance that this could lead to an outward migration of domestic workers as their jobs are taken by those coming into the country. Below is an extract from the article:

The model shows the flow of immigrants in the centre of the diagram, and the well-recognised downward impact on domestic wages through increased supply. The extent to which increased supply of immigrants can impact domestic wages depends on the occupational attainment of immigrants, and the extent to which immigrants are substitutes for domestic labour.

The left-hand side of the diagram shows the added effect of immigration, with an upward effect on domestic wages through increased demand for goods and services and new job creation. This effect can explain why wage decreases may not result after an influx of immigrants. In addition, a feedback loop is shown on the right-hand side, which shows that if downward pressure on wages is created, outward migration of immigrant or domestic workforce would have an increasing feedback effect on wages. The out-migration part of the diagram is pertinent to New Zealand due to its geographic and institutional proximity to Australia.

Germany is the place to go.

Since the 1950′s the free movement of people has been one of the major goals of European integration. Broadly defined, this freedom enables citizens of one Member State to travel to another, to reside and to work there (permanently or temporarily). The idea behind EU legislation in this field is that citizens from other member states should be treated equally with domestic ones – they should not be discriminated against. With the current austerity measures in a lot of European countries and high unemployment there has been a movement to more bouyant countries in particular Germany. See graph below from WSJ Graphics.

Youth Unemployment in Europe

Here is a very good video graphic from The Economist. It looks at youth unemployment rates in the main economies of Europe and discusses the reasons why some countries have had much higher rates. Notice German’s low rate which was falling during the GFC which was mainly due to labour reforms which allowed small businesses to fire employees more easily and liberalised work for part-time and temporary work.

Spain tries the German method to reduce unemployment

If you look at the labour market in Spain you would think that it resembles the German economy 10 years ago when Gerhard Schroder was its leader. Schroder was responsible for labour reforms that ignited the German economy into one of the strongest in Europe.

Spain is relaxing labour laws and cutting public spending and there are some positive signs here in that labour unit costs are falling as result of greater productivity. However German’s vocational education sector was a significant factor in its improved performance as the education and training system is more job orientated. Furthermore, with austerity measures in place and more to follow – pressure from the EU to introduce yet another sales-tax rise – Spain will find it hard to generate any sort of growth. But if it does grow will it generate any reduction in unemployment? Because of labour reforms some economists now believe that only 1.5% growth is required to bring about net job creation rather than 2.5% as previous.

Increase in minimum wage = Positive outcomes for economy?

Recently the minimum wage in New Zealand increased from $13.50 to $13.75 per hour. What are the arguments for an increase in this and what affect does it have?

An argument for the minimum wage is the fact that sometimes in labour markets there isn’t enough competition between employers and a monopsony situation occurs – see graph below. Here the minimum wage would protect the employee. However, is raising the minimum wage based more on reducing inequality as people are still struggling with the purchasing power of their incomes. In the US President Obama spoke in his State of the Union address about increasing the minimum wage from US$7.25 to US$9 – seems to be well targeted with regard to its impact. But ultimately how many people are affected by the increase in the minimum wage?

With the increase in minimum wage there is the belief that employers will lay-off workers. Evidence suggests the following:

1. Employment doesn’t fall much as the increase in wages lowers labour turnover, which raises productivity and the demand for labour.
2. The increase in costs for the employer will be passed onto the consumer in higher prices for goods and services

There is also the argument that wage increases will boost aggregate demand and therefore growth and employment. But in the USA this is estimated to increase consumer purchases by approximately US$15bn and when you think that the US economy is worth US$15 trillion is quite small in the scheme of things.

Economist Christina Romer stated in The New York Times that a more generous earned-income tax credit would provide more support for the working poor and would be more pro business at the same time.

Monopsony Labour Market
A monopsony occurs in the labour market when there is a single or dominant buyer of labour. The buyer therefore is able to determine the price at which is paid for services. Unlike other examples we have looked at, in this situation we are now dealing with an imperfect rather than a perfectly competitive market. The monopsonist will hire workers where:

Marginal Cost of labour (MCL) = Marginal Revenue product of labour (MRPL)

In order to entice workers to supply this amount of labour, the firm need pay only the wage Wq. (Remember that ACL is the supply of labour). You can see, therefore, that a profit-maximising monopsonist will use less labour, and pay a lower wage, than a firm operating under perfect competition.

In this situation the power of the employer in the labour market is of overriding importance and the employer can set a low wage because of this buying power.

Structural unemployment – the big mismatch

From reading the McKinsey report on the mismatch between the skills of the unemployed and the jobs available – Structural Unemployment – here is an interesting graph which I have put together from their data. The lack of skills is a common reason for entry-level vacancies in the nine economies below. It seems that employers and those in education don’t communicate much as to the future requirements of labour.

Why is New Zealand’s labour market still weak?

Just covering the labour market with my A2 class and New Zealand at present gives some good examples of labour market imperfections. You would think with the commencement of the major rebuild in Christchurch would have positive effects on the New Zealand labour market. Economists had forecast unemployment to drop below 6% at the end of 2012 however the December quarter had the rate at 6.9%. The Westpac Economic Overview came up with some reasons as to why employers have been reluctant to take on more labour.

1. Employers are increasing the hours that labour is working rather than taking more on. After the GFC a lot of employers kept labour but reduced their working hours so when the economy starts to grow there is a tendency for them to increase the working hours rather than employing new staff.

2. There has a lack of geographical mobility as workers have been reluctant to move away from areas of New Zealand that have weak growth to those that require more labour – eg. Canterbury. Since late 2010 job vacancies in Christchurch have increased dramatically and employers have found it increasingly difficult to find labour = wages have risen faster in Canterbury than most of New Zealand. The RBNZ reported that this two-speed labour market is suffering from the lowest matching efficiency – the speed with which job vacancies and additions to the labour force translate into jobs. This implies higher wages and higher unemployment than normal.

3. The high NZ$ make imported capital cheaper and there has been an increase in a firms’ intentions to invest in plant and equipment (form overseas) but a reluctance to spend money on new buildings or labour.

Pros and Cons of moving production overseas

By the 1980’s the production of many manufactured goods started to gravitate from developed countries to those of developing status. The main driver for manufactured firms has been the lost-cost labour and as the market environment has became more and more competitive new factories opened up in Mexico, China, Thailand and many eastern European countries. As reported in The Economist, Jack Welch the CEO of General Electric said that ‘factories should be built on barges so they could be floated around the world to take advantage of economies of scale and exchange rate fluctuations.’

Perceived benefits of overseas production

* workers in low-cost countries had jobs and rising living standards
* local workers can leave more menial jobs to overseas workers – eg Polish builders in London – Russian service sector workers in Ireland.

Perceived costs of overseas production

* job losses in developed countries especially for manual workers. Economist Alan Binder estimated that 40 million American jobs could go to the emerging economies.
* it has become a major concern of workers in developed countries especially with the growth of the Internet. A significant amount of IT service jobs can easily be done in countries like India, Philipines etc.

Change of thought after GFC

Since the start of the GFC in 2007 unemployment has soared in a lot of Western countries reaching well over 20% in some countries. This has made the general public more sensitive to jobs going overseas and ultimately has led companies thinking twice about departing their shores. Politicians have also showed discontent at companies looking to relocate overseas although the staff of German company Siemens agreed to increase the working week from 35-40 hours for no extra pay after the company had threatened to shift the production of mobile phones to Hungary.

Confusing signals from New Zealand employment data

You may have heard Stephen Topliss of the BNZ in the media this morning talking about the inconsistent employment data that was recently published. In 2012 30,00 people lost their jobs and there was drop in the number of participants in the labour force by 48,000 as people gave up looking for work – see diagram below for Composition of Labour Force. There are some conflicting pieces of data:

1. The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% to 6.9% over the last quarter but this most probably is due to the fact that the participation rate has fallen.
2. The number of people employed fell by 1.4% for 2012 but the Quarterly Employment Survey suggests that employment grew by around 1.5% over the last year.
3. Business intentions and actions are inconsistent – survey indicate that they expect to hire more labour but ultimately they don’t
4. In surveys consumer confidence is high with the backdrop of so many losing their jobs
5. Housing market usually reflects the state of the labour market – today employment market poor

It begs the question how accurate is the employment data. Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Composition of Labour Force in New Zealand January 2012

World Economy: Car driven by a drunk

David A. Rosenberg an economist with Clusken Sheff in Canada, has likened the world economy to that of a car being driven by a drunk – that is the car is moving back and across the centre line just missing the ditches on the side of the road. Currently he sees the car in the middle of the road although he questions as to whether this is due to the driver becoming more sober or steering towards the ditch on the other side.

Recently the US stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Average) went above 14000 for the first time in more than five years for the following reasons:

1. Better job figures – employers added 157,000 jobs in January and hired more workers in 2012 than had previously been thought. See chart below.
2. Corporate earnings have been stronger than expected,
3. US Federal Reserve has indicated that it will keep interest rates at near zero levels as well as continuing their policy of monthly $85 billion purchases of bonds and mortgage-backed securities, which injected $3 trillion into the banking system last week.

This third point is particularly important. In the New York Times, Rosenbery stated that he didn’t see the US economy in a recession as yet but could quickly go in that direction. “Anemic growth is my baseline scenario.” Also how long can the US Fed keep propping up equity markets and pumping money into the system? The conditions in Europe are not much better – unemployment rose to record levels in December last year and currently stands at 26.8% in Greece and 26.1% in Spain. Add to that the austerity measures which have impacted greatly on overall aggregate demand and the consumer slowdown in Germany, the eurozone area has its problems. So the car might be in the middle of the road right now but it might not take too much for it to deviate from a safe path.

Monopsony power in the labour market and the minimum wage

In 1894 New Zealand made history by being the first developed nation to introduce a minimum wage. The Economist had an article on minimum wages and the fact that they might in fact be good for an economy. Most economists believe that a higher minimum wages = the artificial increase in labour costs and therefore lower demand for labour.

Some economist have suggested that minimum wages can increase employment and obviously pay. However if employees have monopsony power as buyers of labour and are able to influence wages they can keep the wages lower below its competitive rate – see graph below.

Two economists (David Carr & Kruegger) found out in New Jersey that when the minimum wage was raised employment in fast-food restaurants actually increased. The Economist suggests that if firms are not reducing the number of their employees with higher minimum wages they must be employing a number of strategies such as raising prices of their goods/services or saving money from reduced revenue. The IMF state that a moderate minimum wage (30-40% of the median wage – see graph) doesn’t have a significant negative effect on employment numbers and may do some good.

Monopsony in the Labour Market

A monopsony occurs in the labour market when there is a single or dominant buyer of labour. The buyer therefore is able to determine the price at which is paid for services. Unlike other examples we have looked at, in this situation we are now dealing with an imperfect rather than a perfectly competitive market. The monopsonist will hire workers where:

Marginal Cost of labour (MCL) = Marginal Revenue product of labour (MRPL)

From the perspective of the monopsonist firm facing the supply curve directly, if at any point it wants to hire more labour, it has to offer a higher wage to encourage more workers to join the market – after all, this is what the ACL curve tells it. However, the firm would then have to pay that higher wage to all its workers so the marginal cost of hiring the extra worker is not just the wage paid to that worker, but the increased wage paid to all workers as well. So the marginal cost of labour curve (MCL) can be added to the diagram.

If the monopsonist firm wants to maximise profit, it will hire labour up to the point where the marginal cost of labour is equal to the marginal revenue product of labour. Therefore it will use labour up to level of Eq which is where MCL=MRPL. In order to entice workers to supply this amount of labour, the firm need pay only the wage Wq. (Remember that ACL is the supply of labour). You can see, therefore, that a profit-maximising monopsonist will use less labour, and pay a lower wage, than a firm operating under perfect competition.

In this situation the power of the employer in the labour market is of overriding importance and the employer can set a low wage because of this buying power.

US Unemployment levels v Recessions

Below is a graphic showing the levels of unemployment for each month since 1948 and if the economy during that time was in a recession (square in cell). Some points of note:

*In 1953 the level of unemployment was between 2-3% but the US economy was in a recession for the latter part of the year
*The majority of 1960 saw recessionary conditions with unemployment around 6-7%
*1974-75 the economy experienced stagflation – high unemployment and high inflation
*1980-83 periods of high unemployment – the early Reagan years and free market policies.
*1998-2001 – very low levels of unemployment followed by the impact of the 9/11 attacks and the recession that followed
*The financial crisis of 2008 saw 19 consecutive months of recession and unemployment reached between 10-11% in 2009. Since then it has been above 7%.

Trade sees demise of American Middle Class

Here is a recent clip from Paul Solman of PBS which looks at free trade being the cause of the demise of America’s middle class. A new book entitled “The Betrayal of the American Dream,” by investigative reporters Donald Barlett and James Steele suggest that as manufacturing jobs went to developing countries overseas the middle class in America has seen their standard of living drop. As Donald Bartlett states –

The real bottom-line question is, what kind of a society do we want? Do we want a society built on the principle that the only thing that matters is the lowest possible price or a society built on the principle that everyone should have a living wage?

And those are going to be two very different societies. And this goes back again so what we’re talking about. The people up here, they don’t want everyone to have a living wage.

In order to protect Americans jobs the government needs to get tougher on free trade and impose some barriers to trade like quotas and tariffs.

AS & A2 – Global and New Zealand Update for November exams

It is important that you are aware of current issues to do with the New Zealand and the World Economy. Examiners always like students to relate current issues to the economic theory as it gives a good impression of being well read in the subject. Only use these indicators if it is applicable to the question.

Indicators that you might want to mention are as follows:

The New Zealand Economy
The New Zealand economy expanded by 0.6 percent in the June 2012 quarter, while economic growth in the March quarter was revised down slightly to one percent. Favourable weather conditions leading to an increase in milk production was a significant driver of economic growth over the June quarter. The current account deficit rose to $10,087 million in the year ended June 2012, equivalent to 4.9 percent of GDP. Higher profits by foreign-owned New Zealand-operated banks and higher international fuel prices were factors behind the increase in the deficit during the year. Unemployment is currently at 6.8% but is expected to fall below 6% with the predicted increase in GDP. Annual inflation is approaching its trough. It is of the opinion that it will head towards the top end of the Reserve Bank’s target band (3%) by late next year.

The Global Economy
After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) the debt-burdened economies are still struggling to reduce household debt to pre-crisis levels and monetary and fiscal policies have failed to overcome “liquidity traps”. Rising budget deficits and government debt levels have become more unsustainable. The US have employed the third round of quantitative easing and are buying US$40bn of mortgage backed securities each month as well as indicating that interest rates will remain at near zero levels until 2015. Meanwhile in the eurozone governments have implemented policies of austerity and are taking money out of the circular flow. However in the emerging economies there has been increasing inflation arising from capacity constraints as well as excess credit creation. Overall the deleveraging process can take years as the excesses of the previous credit booms are unwound. The price to be paid is a period of sub-trend economic growth which in Japan’s case ends up in lost decades of growth and diminished productive potential. The main economies are essentially pursuing their own policies especially as the election cycle demands a more domestic focus for government policy – voter concerns are low incomes and rising unemployment. Next month see the US elections and the changing of the guard in China. In early 2013 there is elections in Germany. The International Monetary Fund released their World Economic Outlook in which they downgraded their formal growth outlook. They also described the risk of a global recession as “alarmingly high”.

Minutes of work required to buy a beer.

The Economist came out with another interesting chart – the required number of minutes you need to work in order to buy 500ml of beer. Some figures:

US workers need to work 5 minutes
Germans – 7 minutes
Czech Republic – 7 minutes
Australia – 12 minutes
UK – 14 minutes
Mexico – 15 minutes
Philippines – 38 minutes
India – 54 minutes
World average – 20 minutes

Growing adult populations and rising living standards mean that beer consumption in emerging markets is booming. Drinkers there drank two-thirds of the world’s beer in 2011. By 2016, it will be 72%.

AS Unit 5 – State of Global Unemployment

In Unit 5 of the Cambridge AS course unemployment is a significant area of study. It is also important that you are up to date with current trends worldwide. In the OECD the average unemployment rate was 7.9% whilst the eurozone area showed 11.1%. There are two main features of this unemployment – youth unemployment and those who are long-term unemployed. The graph below shows figures that range from 4.4% in Japan and 24.6% in Spain.

Youth Unemployment
This is a major problem especially for those that are unskilled and looking for employment in blue collar jobs. These countries with high youth unemployment have experienced long-term consequences, particularly for those with limited education. Brian Gaynor in the New Zealand Herald mentioned some consequences of youth unemployment from various sources. They include:

* Being unemployed young resulted in lower earnings by 8.4% – 13% in future years.
* A 1% increase in US unemployment resulted in a 6-7% decrease in the wages of college graduates.
* Youth unemployment raised the probability of unemployment in later life
* Loss of earning up to 21% at age 41 for workers who experienced unemployment in early adulthood.
* Unemployment in early 20’s affected earnings, health and job satisfaction up to two decades later.

Long-Term Unemployed
According to the OECD and since the GFC the rise in numbers who have been unemployed for over one and two years are as follows:
1 year – 1.6% to 2.9%
2 years – 0.9% to 1.5%

One of the major issues that a lot countries face is the number of baby boomers that are remaing in the workforce after 65 and the impact this will have on youth unemployment. Furthermore, it is interesting to note from the OECD that labour’s share of national income in its 34 countries has declined from 66.1% to 61.7% in the last 10 years. According to Brian Gaynor the decline in labour’s share is due to a number of factors:

* Greater productivity gains
* Increased mobility and transfer of low-skilled activities from developed to emerging countries
* Weaker trade unions – impacts bargaining powers
* Privatisation – newly privatised companies are more profitable and have fewer employees

Minimum Wage Increase?
The OECD argue against a higher minimum wage as it will increase prices. Also in the long-term firms respond by increasing productivity levels beyond the wage rise which leads to a decline in labour usage and therefore a greater emphasis on capital.

New Zealand’s NAIRU

Stephen Toplis at the BNZ produced an interesting graph showing the Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment – NAIRU. With the increasing amount of structural unemployment in the New Zealand economy caused by a mismatch – Skills of unemployed v Skills required in the labour market – the NAIRU is around 5%. This means that an unemployment level of 6.7% is worringly tight and a level below 5% could be inflationary. This is likely to result in upward pressure on wages which will erode corporate profitability given that output growth will be constrained.

China’s mining issues in Australia

For many years China has been trying to guarantee resources for its growing economy. The FT in London recently looked at the Chinese mining company Citic Pacific which has invested huge funds into the Sino Iron mine in Western Australia. Originally hatched in 2006 the level of expenditure has gone significantly higher than expected – from US$2bn to US$7.1bn today. However some have suggested that a US$10bn will ultimately be the cost and this is especially prevalent in that they are two years behind schedule.

It seems that Citic Pacific have put down too much money to pull out – barriers to exit. China imports about 60% of its iron ore and the Sino Iron mine is an attempt by the Chinese to break away from the dependency of foreign suppliers, which Chinese steelmakers accuse of driving prices too high. However Chinese companies have found it difficult to adjust to the foreign working conditions compared to the protected environment in China. Chinese enterprises are often unprepared for the rigours of foreign competitors especially with regard to employment laws and the nature of contracts. China’s mining plans involve the use of Chinese labour as they are cheaper and have a higher productivity. However, overseas labour laws and visa requirements make the use of Chinese labour all but impossible. In Australia truck drivers can earn US$2000,000 a year with three-home housing, free home leave. By seeking control negotiations can become confrontational.

The Chinese were desperate for iron ore when the demand for steel was very high. However Chinese developers realise now that the demand for steel has dropped and prices have fallen. In 2010 China imported less iron ore than the previous year and by 2011, higher interest rates and strict restrictions on property and construction continued to put downward pressure on steel prices. Also for Citic Pacific miscalculations over currency have played a role in increasing costs. The AUS$ has appreciated over the life of the project and controversial hedges that Citic bought went wrong causing a $2bn loss.

Yesterday official GDP figures out of China showed that growth has slowed to 7.6% for the second quarter. This was predicted but as building and infrastructure development accounts for 55% of China’s GDP growth this has a significant impact on demand for iron ore which is a key ingredient in steel.

Portugese workers told to emigrate – Irish already gone

The high levels of unemployment have led one European leader to suggest leaving the country. According to the FT in London, Portugal’s prime minister, Passos Coelho, has indicated to the younger generation that if they can’t find any work they should “leave their comfort zone” by going overseas. Some from the political left have suggested that although there is a lot more freedom since the dictatorship ended in 1974, this has not translated into opportunities for employment. When Portugal joined the euro in 1999 they became a net importer of migrants but last year it is estimated that 150,000 emigrated overseas and a significant number of them being graduates. As with a lot european countries inflexible labour laws which make it costly to dismiss older workers mean that companies are less likely to employ younger workers. However changing the labour laws to make it easier to get rid of workers isn’t going to go suddenly create more jobs.

In Ireland, since the GFC in 2008, 250,000 people have left the country. What’s more worrying is that the youth unemployment (18-24 year olds) has risen to approximately 33% and that is not taking into consideration those who have emigrated. However to any government youth emigration has some benefits:

1. There is less need for social welfare support
2. It reduces the chances of social unrest which generally tends to originate from the younger members of the population.

Unemployment Figures in Portugal and Ireland

“We should repair our highways” says The Economic Naturalist

Robert Frank author of “The Economic Naturalist” and “The Darwin Economy” recently wrote a piece in The New York Times advocating tradiitonal Keynesian stimulus policy. With the US election on the horizon both Obama and Romney will be focusing on how to kick-start the economy. Obama has been a keen believer in infrastructure investment as a way to get American back into work whilst Romney has recognised the clear link between spending and employment.

In 2009 it was estimated that US roads, bridges and other infrastructure were in disrepair by the order of $2 trillion. There are many with the skills to do these jobs that are currently unemployed. Furthermore the longer you leave the repairs the more expensive it becomes. Some have said that this just puts the government into further debt but Frank argues that:

The same logic applies to overdue infrastructure investments. Yes, paying for them requires more government debt. And while austerity advocates fret that such projects will impoverish our grandchildren, they concede that the investments can’t be postponed indefinitely, and that they’ll become much more expensive the longer we wait.

It seems that there is great opportunity to stimulate growth in the economy.